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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 200928
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
228 AM MST Thu Jun 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak weather disturbance slowly passing by to our north through
Saturday will bring breezy conditions and a slight cool down into
the weekend. This will result in below normal temperatures and
highs mostly in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees this weekend.
High pressure will slowly build across the region next week
leading to temperatures warming back to around normal readings
while dry conditions prevail.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
The overall quiet weather conditions look to continue well into
next week with elevated fire danger being the only forecast
concern. Current analysis shows weak flow aloft, but this will
change later today as a deep trough sags southward through the
Pacific Northwest. This trough will increase winds aloft enough
later today to lead to widespread afternoon breezy conditions to
locally windy across southeast California. Temperatures today will
be nearly identical to the last couple days, but as the trough
drifts closer to our region Friday into Saturday, highs will bottom
out in the upper 90s on Saturday. Daytime breezy to locally windy
conditions will last through Saturday with winds being slightly
higher Friday. Fire weather conditions will be the main concern
through Saturday due to the winds and continued low RHs.

The trough is forecast to eventually shift to the east on Sunday
leaving mostly dry zonal flow over our region through Monday.
Another deep Pacific trough will set up across the Northwest U.S.
by next Tuesday and Wednesday, turning our flow out of the
southwest and likely leading to another round of breezy
conditions. Heights aloft do gradually creep upward next week,
pushing temperatures back to around normal readings during the
latter half of next week. Though models have backed off some on
bringing a strong subtropical high into our region late next week
into the following weekend, it still looks possible highs will
approach 110 degrees across the southern Arizona deserts. There
are also signs sufficient moisture may seep into far eastern
Arizona for some shower or thunderstorm activity beginning late
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 0500 UTC.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT;

Dry southwest flow will keep skies clear at the TAF sites through
the TAF period. Overnight winds are expected to shift to the
southeast with speeds under 10 kts. Low pressure strengthening to
the north of Arizona will lead to slightly stronger winds Thursday
afternoon and evening; there may be a few hours of mainly
southerly winds up to 10kt late morning into early afternoon but
by around 21z we should see winds mostly from the southwest at the
TAF sites. Look for occasional gusts to near 20kt at times into
the middle of the evening tomorrow.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Dry southwest flow will keep skies clear across the western deserts
through the TAF period. Winds will be only weather impact for the
TAF sites. At KIPL, winds favor the southeast much of the time
but should turn to the west/southwest by mid afternoon Thursday.
Look for some gusts over 20kt after 22z continuing into the
evening hours. Winds favor the south at KBLH next 24 hours, with
winds becoming stronger Thursday afternoon. Look for sustained
winds to near 20kt after 18z Thursday with higher gusts likely.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Saturday through Wednesday:
Cooler temperatures through this weekend will eventually give way
to a steady warmup to near seasonal temperatures next week.
Daytime humidity values will still remain near 10% each afternoon
with overnight recovery into the 20-30% range. Gusty winds will
remain a concern through Sunday, especially across the Tonto NF
and Rim area, with gusts upwards of 20 mph before calming
slightly through the week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Saturday for
     CAZ562.

     Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening
     for CAZ560.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...Hernandez/CB
FIRE WEATHER...Deems

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Phoenix, AZ (PSR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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