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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 240521

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
1021 PM MST Sat Feb 23 2019

Updated Aviation section.


Look for generally sunny skies, and cold morning temperatures, today
in the wake of an exiting powerful winter storm. Another chilly
morning can be expected on Sunday, but after that temperatures will
warm as high pressure aloft builds across the area from the west. We
can expect high temperature to climb back near normal by next
Tuesday. It will be dry this weekend and for the remainder of next
work week but there will be occasional mid and high clouds moving
through the westerly flow aloft.


Folks woke to a chilly Saturday morning punctuated by patchy fog
and frost in isolated spots of the forecast area. The visible
satellite images today reveal a very white Arizona with snow
capped mountains abound, even including the White Tanks and Sierra
Estrellas. With the trough axis well off to the east and sunny
skies, the forecast area will warm up a few degrees compared to
yesterday`s historic temperatures. The Phoenix area will warm into
the mid 50`s by this afternoon but that will challenge the record
for coolest high temperature for this date (55 degrees).
Temperatures across the lower Colorado River area and into
Southeast California will see the low 60`s. The low temperatures
the next few nights will be slightly warmer but still reaching the
freezing mark in southern Gila County which may refreeze any of
the melted snow.

Beginning Sunday and through pretty much the end of the next work
week, we are looking at a dry and rather zonal pattern, with high
pressure gradually building and allowing for temperatures to
finally climb back to...and then rise above...seasonal normal
levels. Highs will stay around 10 degrees below seasonal normals
Sunday with readings in the low 60s in the Phoenix area. By
Tuesday we will finally see desert highs rise to near normal and
into the low 70s over warmer southern deserts. As flat ridging
continues to develop, by Thursday highs should reach the mid to
upper 70s...and climb near 80 across far southeast deserts
including the Yuma area. Look for periods of high clouds at times
during the forecast period, as weak short waves/disturbances pass
quickly through the flow, tending to stay to the north of Phoenix.
One of the cloudiest days may be Wednesday as the ridge aloft
flattens a bit and allows thicker mid/high level moisture to
spread into the area.


South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL; and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A weather upper level disturbance will lead to increasing cirrus
from west to east tonight before clearing from west to east late
Sunday afternoon and evening. With a surface high centered to the
northeast, surface winds will favor northeast and east directions
over south-central AZ and northerly directions further west.
However, speeds will be light. Meanwhile, at altitudes near and
above FL100, winds will be southwesterly.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.


Monday through Friday:
Dry conditions are expected through the work week, along with a
warming trend as high pressure starts to build into the area.
Temperatures will warm back into the upper 60s by Monday and mid
70s by Wednesday through the rest of the week. Minimum relative
humidity levels will remain elevated, with the deserts typically
running 20 to 30 percent each day as dewpoints generally remain in
the 30s. Winds will also remain light through the period with
afternoon gusts rarely exceeding 10 mph except on Friday in
southeast California where 15-20 mph gusts will be possible.


Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.





Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Phoenix, AZ (PSR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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