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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 161108
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
408 AM MST Wed Oct 16 2019

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion...

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Very typical mid October mundane, yet pleasant weather will persist
across the region this week and into next week. Temperatures will
warm somewhat through today with lower desert communities reaching
back towards the mid 90s. A fast moving, dry weather system will
force temperature back down around the seasonal average by the
weekend. Near normal high temperatures will persist through the
weekend will modest warming expected again during the early part of
next week. Generally sunny days and clear nights can be expected for
the 7 day forecast period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Early this morning, high pressure aloft centered northwest of
Arizona was steadily pushing east with 500mb heights approaching
588dm expected to move into central Arizona by this afternoon. IR
imagery showed generally clear skies across the area with some
largely thin cirrus moving in from the west. Surface dewpoints over
the lower deserts were much lower than 24 hours ago and ranged
mostly from the low 30s to low 40s. Phoenix reached a high of 93
yesterday, and with heights set to rise another 30m or so we should
see a few more degrees of warming with warmer deserts to climb into
the mid 90s today. Phoenix should top out around 96 or 97 degrees
under sunny skies.

Model guidance has been very consistent over the past few days -
both operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF as well as various
ensemble guidances such as GEFS - that the desert southwest will see
a very dry period starting today and continuing at least through the
middle of next week. Overall, flow aloft will be somewhat zonal; dry
west to northwest flow aloft will keep skies mostly clear with sunny
days and clear nights the rule each day. A dry open wave trof is set
to push quickly inland Thursday and move across Arizona through the
day Friday and the only weather "impacts" will be breezy conditions
Thursday and a cooling trend lowering highs into the upper 80s by
Friday afternoon. Little change in temps is expected through the
weekend as warmer deserts stay in the mid to upper 80s. Stronger
high pressure builds back into the area into the early part of next
week, with potential for 500mb heights around 590dm to move inland
and into Arizona. As such we may well see warmer deserts back into
the low 90s by next Tuesday.

A few examples to show how dry we will be over the next week: the
latest MEX MOS for Phoenix has nothing but 1 or 0 percent for 12
hourly POPs each of the next 7 days. NAEFS POPs are virtually zero
over most of the area each day and GEFS QPF ensemble members
basically have NO members bringing any precip into Arizona today
into the middle of next week. Yes, it looks like dry weather for the
foreseeable future.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1110Z

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

No aviation concerns through the TAF period. Winds will remain
light, around 6 kts or less and skies will generally be clear with
few-sct high cirrus. Easterly winds will dominate today with no
westerly switch anticipated. In addition, there may be a few
gusts into the teens out of the east early afternoon.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Mostly clear skies with few-sct high cirrus through tonight.
Winds will remain light through the TAF period, around 6 kts or
less and generally follow diurnal wind directions.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday:
Dry weather will continue across all districts into early next week
as weekend temperatures near average slowly begin warming back above
normal towards the middle of next week. Some localized breeziness
will occur Friday afternoon, though much weaker winds will follow
over the weekend. The pattern appears to be setting up to support
some gustier easterly ridge top morning winds in the central Arizona
districts Monday and Tuesday. Afternoon minimum humidity levels
will generally fall into a 10-20% range following only poor to fair
overnight recovery.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...Hernandez/Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...MO

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Phoenix, AZ (PSR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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