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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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290
FXUS65 KPSR 221246 CCA
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion...Corrected Synopsis
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
520 AM MST Fri Jun 22 2018

.UPDATE...Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure across the southwest will result in some excessive
heat today, with many lower desert communities exceeding the
110 degree threshold. Some cooling is anticipated over the weekend
as a weak low pressure system passes north of the region. By early
next week, high temperatures will again climb with hottest deserts
back near 110 by next Wednesday. There are no signs of rainfall
through at least early next week as sunny days and clear nights
will be the rule.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Clear skies continue across the Southwest this morning, with a
mid-level anticyclone centered across northwest Mexico forecast to
gradually weaken throughout the day as a weak shortwave trough
passes through the northern Rockies. 00Z upper-air soundings from
Thursday afternoon showed nearly identical low-level temperatures
at 850 mb compared to the previous 24 hours. Forecast high
temperatures for this afternoon will remain very similar to what
was observed on Thursday, with highs approaching 110 within the
Phoenix area, and slightly warmer temperatures expected across the
lower Colorado River Valley and southeast California. The
Excessive Heat Warning for parts of the forecast area (including
the Greater Phoenix area and Yuma) will continue for today.

A more significant shortwave upper trough will evolve across the
northern Rockies this weekend, and lead to a decrease in midlevel
heights across most of the western CONUS, and a slight cooling
trend Saturday and Sunday. In fact, many locations may be a degree
or two below normal by Sunday, with highs of 100-103 forecast
across most of the lower deserts. This cooling trend will be
short-lived, as temperatures near 110 degrees return by the middle
of next week. High pressure will rebuild across Arizona/New Mexico
during this period, with a broad ridge extending northward across
most of the interior CONUS.

The storm track will still remain fairly active for late June
across the Pacific Northwest/northern tier, making it difficult
for high pressure to become established across the Southwest for
more than a couple consecutive days. In fact, there is some signal
for a seasonably strong upper trough to develop late next week
across the western CONUS, which would bring another cooldown to
the Southwest. This also means that the necessary moisture
advection from Mexico to achieve a more active Monsoon period will
remain confined primarily to northern Mexico, meaning there are
currently no signs of precipitation through late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, and KSDL, and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

No aviation concerns are expected for at least the next 24 hours as
dry westerly flow aloft will continue to affect the terminals
leading to sunny days and clear nights. Winds in the greater Phoenix
area will follow typical diurnal tendencies, with just a few gusts
into the teens possible between about 20z and 02z. Otherwise, winds
at KBLH should favor the south today with some gustiness during the
afternoon possible, and winds to favor the southeast for the most
part at KIPL with speeds genly aob 10kt.

Aviation Discussion not updated for amended TAFs.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Sunday through Thursday:
Low pressure passing well to the north will push temperatures back
to near-normal values Sunday. Another warming trend is then expected
during the first half of next week as high pressure rebuilds across
the Desert Southwest causing high temperatures to climb above
seasonal normals by Tuesday. Minimum afternoon humidity values
between 12 and 20 percent Sunday will fall mostly into the single
digits starting Monday. Overnight recoveries will be poor to fair.
No strong winds are expected during the period, although typical
afternoon upslope gustiness will be common each day with wind
directions favoring south to southwest. There are no signs of rain
through the middle of next week.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this week.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ537-
     540>546-548>551-553>556-560-562.

     Heat Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening for AZZ563.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM MST this
     evening for AZZ532-536-539.

CA...Excessive Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ561-
     566.

     Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this
     evening for CAZ567-568-570.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rogers
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch/CB

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Phoenix, AZ (PSR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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