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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 252305

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
405 PM MST Tue Jan 25 2022

Updated Aviation


A dry weather disturbance moving through the area will result in
breezy to windy conditions for areas generally along and to the west
of the Lower Colorado River Valley this evening through early
Wednesday. Dry conditions with no rain chances are expected during
the next 7 days. A warming trend is expected into the upcoming
weekend as high pressure builds across the western United States.


Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough
digging down into the desert southwest. This feature is dry with
only some high-level clouds streaming in across northern Arizona at
this time. The only sensible weather impact will be an increase in
winds this afternoon through tonight along and to the west of the
Lower Colorado River Valley as the pressure gradient tightens.
Gusts of between 20 and 30 mph, locally higher, are possible. With
the gusty winds, can`t rule out some localized areas of patchy
blowing dust that can briefly reduce visibilities. High temperatures
this afternoon look to top out in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees
across the lower deserts of south-central Arizona and in the lower
70s along and to the west of the lower Colorado River Valley.

As the shortwave exits east of the area Wednesday, a northwesterly
flow aloft around the eastern periphery of a west coast ridge will
take hold through Thursday. This will result in a cool air mass to
be in place with temperatures remaining seasonable for this time of
the year, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees across
the lower deserts of south-central Arizona, with lower 70s along and
to the west of the Lower Colorado River Valley. In terms of
overnight temperatures, it appears that the coldest period will be
just before sunrise early Thursday morning. The latest NBM guidance
shows a greater than 50% probability of temperatures dropping to
around freezing across portions of La Paz County as well as around
the Lower Colorado River Valley, with upper 30s to lower 40s

As we head into Friday, another shortwave will dive down from the
intermountain west and track northeast of the area. As it does so,
the pressure gradient will once again tighten and thus an increase
in winds are likely, especially across south-central Arizona. The
latest ECMWF EFI shows values between 0.8 and 0.9 across most of
south-central Arizona, indicating that breezy conditions are likely.

Going into the weekend, the aforementioned west coast ridge will
move into the western half of the United States, causing heights
aloft to build. As a result, temperatures are expected to be on a
warming trend with all of the lower deserts expected to see
temperatures rise into the 70s. The latest NBM guidance shows an 80%
and 40% chance of temperatures surpassing 70 and 75 degrees,
respectively, across Phoenix. The ensemble as well as the
deterministic model guidance is showing a weak upper-level trough
moving into the area from the Pacific coast for Sunday. However,
this feature will be moisture starved and won`t affect temperatures
significantly. Only noticeable change will be an increase in some
high-level clouds.

There are strong indications as we head into next week of a shift in
the overall large-scale weather pattern, with a trough expected to
develop along the western CONUS. Right now, the latest ensemble
cluster analysis are split in terms of the amplitude of the trough
as it moves into the west. Therefore, uncertainty is high at this
time in terms of any sensible weather impacts that could result with
this shift in the overall pattern as we head into the first few days
of February.


.AVIATION...Updated 2305Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Weather should not be a major issue for operations through Wednesday
afternoon with clear skies and light winds. West winds near 10kt
will make the usual easterly nocturnal switch prior to midnight.
Light east winds should prevail much longer into late Wednesday
afternoon than usual; and highly variable direction may be common
by sunset.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Winds will be the main issue through Wednesday afternoon under clear
skies. North winds will be persistent at KBLH with speeds
periodically touching 15-20kt. Winds at KIPL will be weaker, and
tend to oscillate between northerly and westerly through the period.


Thursday through Monday:
A dry weather system will move through the region Thursday into
Friday. As this occurs, breezy conditions will increase across the
area. High pressure then builds in for the end of the week with
temperatures warming and dry conditions persisting. Min RHs are
expected to be in the 10-20% range through the period. Max RH values
are expected to be around 30-60% for most areas Thursday before
decreasing into the 20-40% range starting Friday.




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