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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 221144 AAA
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
445 AM MST Wed Jan 22 2020

.UPDATE...Updated aviation and fire weather discussions.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Residual moisture in the form of low clouds and fog will linger
across parts of the area through this morning with patchy dense
fog likely. Increasing high pressure and drying conditions
beginning Wednesday night will lead to warming conditions late
this week and high temperatures back into the 70s. The quiet
weather should last through the weekend with above normal
temperatures persisting before a slight cool down into early next
week as a weak weather disturbance mostly passes north of the
region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After fairly widespread light rain yesterday, skies have begun to
clear across portions of the area with much of southeast
California and southwest Arizona mostly clear as of 2 AM.
Lingering low stratus is still covering much of south-central
Arizona, but there is a slow erosion of the back edge of the
stratus across northwestern Maricopa County. The main forecast
concern for the rest of today will be the dense fog potential as
all the ingredients are present for widespread fog. Current dew
point depressions are near zero across much of south-central
Arizona to around 3-6F across southeast California and southwest
Arizona. Dense fog still seems possible in river valley areas
across SE CA and SW AZ and potentially into the Imperial Valley,
but the higher dew point depressions in these areas may keep the
dense fog somewhat patchy. Farther east into south-central
Arizona, areas of fog should form shortly after the stratus breaks
up. For instance, Luke AFB has already seen fog with visibilities
down below a mile after seeing skies clear around 1 AM. Locations
that do see clear skies before 6 AM are at greater risk of seeing
dense fog, whereas locations that don`t clear out will likely
only see light fog. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 11 AM
MST/10 AM PST for much of the area.

An upper level ridge to our west will move into the region tonight
into Thursday resulting in gradual drying and a fairly decent
warm-up. After high temperatures of 65-70 degrees today, highs
will increase closer to 75 degrees by Friday, likely staying at
this level of 5-8 degrees above normal through the weekend. Skies
through the weekend will remain mostly clear with only periods of
high (mostly thin) cirrus. Models do show the ridge exiting to
the east on Sunday with a more active trough pattern affecting the
West Coast and Southwestern U.S. during the first part of next
week. There is still a good deal of uncertainty as far as precip
chances for early next week, and it will largely depend on the
eventual track of any shortwave troughs. Temperatures are most
likely to trend cooler early next week, but so far models are not
showing any big dip in temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1145Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:

As high pressure slowly starts to build into the area from the
northwest allowing drier northwest flow to settle into the area,
significant low level moisture remains and we can expect areas of
low clouds and fog across the greater Phoenix area this morning.
CIGs will range from around 5k feet down to below 1k feet, and
visibility in mist/fog will typically range from 1 to 5SM. Potential
is there for vis to fall below 1SM at times and maybe briefly to
1/4SM. Best window for low CIGs and low vis in the 13z to 17z window
with improving conditions following into the afternoon hours. After
18z cloud decks should mostly scatter out but there may be a few
lingering CIGs into mid afternoon, with bases 2500-4500 ft.
Otherwise look for very light winds next 24 hours only weakly
following typical diurnal patterns.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

A drier northwest flow aloft will continue to overspread the western
deserts today as high pressure aloft builds in from the west. Some
low level moisture will linger this morning allowing FEW-SCT decks
aoa 5k feet, with isolated bases around 015-020. Possibility for
some fog with best window 13z-17z. For the most part expect vis to
be aoa 3SM but there is a slight threat for vis to briefly fall
below 2SM for an hour or two. After 18z threat should be mostly over
with just a bit of high clouds moving thru the area. Look for very
light winds, tending to favor the north.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Friday through Tuesday: Temperatures will warm to above seasonal
normal levels during the period with warmer deserts generally low to
middle 70s each day. Conditions will be mostly dry with minimum
humidity values dropping into the 20-30% range across the lower
desert and 30-40% range for the higher terrain. Winds will remain
fairly light although the Lower Colorado River Valley may see some
gusts up to 20 mph Thursday and Friday. There are indications that
another weather system could bring a slight chance for rain early
next week mainly over high terrain areas to the east of Phoenix.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for AZZ530-532-
     536>540-543-544-546-548-550-551-553-554-559.

CA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ565-567-
     569.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kuhlman
AVIATION...CB
FIRE WEATHER...Deems/CB

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Phoenix, AZ (PSR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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