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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 072315

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
415 PM MST Wed Jun 7 2023

Updated Aviation


Dry and tranquil conditions are expected over the next several days.
Under the influence of a troughing pattern, temperatures will run
below normal, with daytime highs in the 90s and overnight lows in
the 60s to lower 70s through at least the start of next week.
Temperatures may begin to warm up closer to normal by the latter
part of next week.


Cooler than normal temperatures continue across the Desert Southwest
as the region remains under the influence of troughing. Afternoon WV
imagery showed the quasi-stationary low pressure system responsible
for our current below normal temperatures was situated over central
California. This system was able to produce a few weak echoes on
radar this morning across parts of southeast California, but
otherwise dry conditions continue under mostly clear skies across
the area. Temperatures today will top out in the mid to upper 90s
across the Arizona lower deserts and lower 90s across southeast

The below normal temperatures will continue through the remainder of
this week and into early next week as we remain under a persistent
troughing pattern. Ensemble cluster analysis remains in good
agreement in this troughing pattern continuing over the Southwest
CONUS. The current low pressure system affecting the Southwest will
weaken over the next day before another shortwave trough dives down
from the northern Pacific and reinforces the below normal
temperatures. NBM shows good confidence with little spread in high
temperatures going through the rest of this week, keeping daytime
highs in the mid to upper 90s across the central Arizona deserts and
lower to mid 90s across the western half of the CWA. On average
(1991-2020), Phoenix typically sees about 5 days below 100 degrees
for highs during the month of June. So far this month, Phoenix has
seen two days below 100 degrees and will likely add several more to
this count. Though temperatures will be below normal, afternoon
highs will continue to pose a minor Heat Risk, so the proper heat
precautions should continue to be taken.

Looking ahead toward the latter part of next week, ensemble guidance
continue to favor upper level ridging building across northern
Mexico and the southern Plains. Uncertainty still exists in how far
west this ridge will build, which will influence how warm our
temperatures get. As of now, the latest forecast pushes highs back
to around near normal values, but we will have a better idea on this
as we get closer.


.AVIATION...Updated at 2315Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No major weather issues will exist through Thursday afternoon under
increasing high cirrus decks. Winds will behave nearly identically
to the past 24 hours, albeit with somewhat less gustiness than the
past several days.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Little to no aviation impacts will exist through Thursday afternoon
under thickening cirrus decks. A W/SW component will be favored
through the evening and overnight, transitioning to S/SE during
morning/early afternoon. A few higher gusts will be possible,
however less pronounced than the past several days.


Lighter, diurnal winds are expected over the next several days with
more typical afternoon breezes gusting to around 20 mph. Breezier
conditions will return for this weekend as another low pressure
system moves into the region. This may lead to more elevated fire
weather conditions with the dry, breezy conditions. Min RHs will
remain low around 5-15% across south-central Arizona and around 15-
25% across southwest Arizona and southeast California. Dry
conditions will persist.


.HYDROLOGY...Updated 255 PM MST 6/6/2023

GILA: Releases from Painted Rock Dam continue to remain above 1,000
cfs, leading to extended downstream impacts along the Gila River.
Impacts include continued inundation of unbridged river crossings,
with many of these remaining closed. Therefore, the Flood Warnings
along the Gila River between Painted Rock Dam and the Colorado River
have been extended through June 13th.






Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Phoenix, AZ (PSR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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