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Forecast Discussion for Phoenix, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KPSR 291154
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
454 AM MST Sun Mar 29 2020

.UPDATE...Updated Fire Weather discussion.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A warming trend will prevail through Wednesday as high pressure
builds across the Desert Southwest. Although somewhat cooler
conditions are expected late in the week, slightly above normal
temperatures will likely persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Latest water vapor imagery shows a weak trough along the central
California coast. Ahead of this system, widespread mid and high
clouds associated with a jet streak currently blanket Arizona.
Latest NAM simulated satellite imagery indicates skies will clear
this morning, giving way to sunny skies and a continued warming
trend. Meanwhile, the aforementioned trough will move through the
Mojave Desert today. Main impact will be an increase in wind,
particularly across southeastern California, where models suggest
gusts could reach 30-35 mph this evening. Across central Arizona,
breezy conditions will develop during the late afternoon with
occasional gusts up to 15-20 mph.

In the wake of the trough Monday, temperatures will remain a few
degrees below normal. A bigger jump in temperatures will occur
Tuesday as a ridge builds eastward from the eastern Pacific into the
Desert Southwest. Another southern-stream trough will bring abundant
high clouds to the region, but the lower-levels will remain too dry
for any precipitation.

Models remain in fairly good agreement through Wednesday, depicting
a slow-moving Pacific storm system moving into the northern interior
West. Southwesterly flow ahead of this system will help to boost
temperatures a few more degrees into the upper 80s (across the
lower deserts), though again lingering high clouds will temper the
heating.

Both the ECMWF-EPS and GEFS have taken a decided turn in the
extended period, indicating lower heights associated with the
aforementioned trough will linger into at least Friday. Consequently,
temperatures were lowered several degrees Thursday-Saturday.
Eclipsing the 90 degree mark in Phoenix now appears less likely
during the late week period. The warmest ensemble member within the
NBM still hints at the possibility of reaching 90 degrees, though a
larger spread in the guidance points to increasing uncertainty and
the possibility of somewhat cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1115Z.

South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT, and
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:

Area of high clouds will push east of the area this morning
leaving generally clear skies through the rest of the period.
However, may see a few lower clouds aoa 8 kft in the foothills
areas north and east of Phoenix late this morning and afternoon.
Winds will generally be light this morning turning west this
afternoon with a few breezes possible in the Phoenix area with
more steady gusts over the western deserts, including KIPL. Winds
tonight for the Phoenix area should stay out of the west a bit
longer than typical, but eventually turn back out of the east by
12Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Tuesday through Saturday:
High pressure across the Desert Southwest will result in a
continued warming trend through Wednesday. Somewhat cooler
conditions are likely thereafter as a Pacific storm system affects
the northern Great Basin, though temperatures will likely remain
above normal. Minimum RHs will generally drop into the mid teens
each afternoon. Meanwhile, winds will be on the light side,
however localized afternoon breeziness will remain a possibility.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Hirsch
AVIATION...Kuhlman
FIRE WEATHER...Hirsch

Previous Forecast Discussions may be found at
NWS Phoenix, AZ (PSR) Office Forecast Discussions.
(Click 'Previous Version' there to view past versions successively.
Some may differ only in time posted.)

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